11/14/2002 10:19:00 AM BRIAN PERRY/ How the GOP won
By BRIAN PERRY
Reasonably Right
Stunned disbelief gripped Democrats. Amazed exuberance filled Republicans. Rapid confusion and reporting hesitation plagued the media. This was the 2002 Election, a historic win by the GOP.
The failure of the Democratic Party was a failure in campaign message. The Republicans campaigned with a popular president and urged voters to elect a legislature that would work with him to pass his agenda. The Democrats only criticism of the administration appeared to be based on the economic status of the country. Voters didn’t buy it.
Traditionally, the “party team” message the Republicans used hasn’t resonated with voters. And the economy has been a political Holy Grail, demonstrated by electing Bill Clinton President in 1992 and keeping him President through the pressure of popularity following impeachment in 1999. This year, voters made the two-step connection and sent Bush the Republican Congress he needed, while refusing to blame him or his party for the economic situation of the nation.
This may be a signal that voters are becoming, on one hand more sophisticated, and on the other hand more entertained, with their Election Day choices. Fifteen years ago, twenty-four hour cable news reached a narrow segment of viewers. Today, in addition to regular network news programs, several million viewers a night tune in to FoxNews, MSNBC and CNN. Add this to the tens of millions who tune in to talk and news radio. After a decade of widespread observance, these media forces certainly have an impact on the electoral culture.
Viewers are activated by a constant focus on political news, with each network attempting to present a unique infotainment perspective. While people still want to blame someone for poor economic times, and vote tendencies shift for that purpose, intellectually citizens may be ready to withhold blame or reward to incumbents based simply on the uncontrollable tide of economic success and failure.
Furthermore, they are engaged in the process and while unable to call from home to choose a winner like picking an “American Idol,” they are able to make it to the polls and choose the characters for their nightly dose of news - the original reality television programs.
Without the “economy, stupid” slogan, the Democrats looked around only to find they had nothing to talk about. The traditional Democratic Party platform has been accomplished; the party put itself out of business by completing its goals. In the words of political observer Peggy Noonan, “Here is the Democrats’ problem: They have achieved every major goal they sought in the past 100 years. The party is losing because it won. They got Social Security. They got Medicare and Medicaid, with the help of some Republicans. They got civil rights with the help of a lot of Republicans…They got the New Deal, and they got the Great Society. They got the welfare state. And you can argue they have been undone by their success.”
Now the Republicans, taking a page from the Dick Morris notebook on triangulation, have posted themselves into competition with Democrats on domestic issues. The GOP pledges to support Social Security and Medicare for seniors, and instead of undoing, they reformed the welfare system (signed by Democrat President Bill Clinton).
President George W. Bush leads the neo-Republicans using a strategy of maintenance on a socially conservative base, and expansion into the moderate independent swing voters. Bush’s anti-abortion, pro-gun, patriotic faith based rhetoric excites and reassures the voting base. The Republican money sources support his tax cut and energy plans. Generally, the American people trust the GOP with foreign policy issues which post 9-11 assures Bush’s party of support on the international front as well as domestically via Homeland Security. Bush and the Republicans then only lack a few percentage points from the center to build a governing majority. So they sacrifice spending cuts and smaller government to attract significant moderate support while losing but a smidgen of the libertarian leaning party philosophers. Increased government spending for education and health care take these issues from the New Democrats and file them in the compassionate conservative column.
Riding a wave of popularity and insulated from attacks by the Democrats, Republicans unleashed Bush in critical states, making the difference in Minnesota and Georgia among others. The GOP combined Bush’s energizing of the rank and file, with strong media buys though successful fundraising, and a get-out-the-vote plan taken from the tried-and-true Democrat/Labor model. A post 9-11 national voting surge was not unexpected within Republican ranks, but an organized 72-hour voting plan by the GOP transformed a patriotic desire into an effect action.
So was the Election of 2002 an indicator of a new political paradigm or a momentary success of current political strategy? It could be some of both. But while Republicans look toward this success in hopes of holding the White House in 2004 while expanding their strength in Congress, they must also be about the business of government and advancing their ideology. Expect that business of governing to itself be part of the Republican political plan while Democrats search for a new niche, or reclaim their old niche, in American political competition.
Brian Perry is a columnist for the Madison County Journal and editor of MagnoliaReport.com.
