11/27/2002 3:43:00 PM BRIAN PERRY / South rises again
By BRIAN PERRY
Reasonably Right
In 1994, George W. Bush was running for Governor of Texas and his younger brother Jeb (who was being groomed for the Presidency) was running for Governor of Florida. George won; Jeb lost. But, as Frank Sinatra might say, it was a very good year - for Republicans.
Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich and Republican National Committeeman Haley Barbour from Yazoo City here in Mississippi, had put together a plan to nationalize that first mid-term election under Democrat Bill Clinton. The Contract with America energized the conservative Republican base and won over many conservative Democrat voters, while Ralph Reed led the Christian Coalition in mobilizing the “religious right.” Republicans won 52 House seats and 8 Senate seats to take control of both houses of Congress for the first time since the Eisenhower Administration. They also picked up 10 governors.
The years following were rough on Republicans. Republicans lost congressional seats in the South, a few key Senate seats, and New Southern Democrats were taking over the Governor’s Mansions from North Carolina to Mississippi. But the GOP held the House during that time, only lost the Senate on a party switcher, and finally in 2000 regained the White House.
Now, in George W. Bush’s first mid-term election, the GOP made history again. No mid-term Republican President has ever added seats in the House, and no President ever (since popular election of the Senate) has taken control of the Senate during a mid-term. While losing some governors, the Republicans maintained a majority of the states and lost fewer incumbents than Democrats.
The Republican success, in large part, can be seen in and is thanks to the GOP’s Southern strength. Here, Republicans took the Governor’s Mansion out of Democratic hands in Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. In Texas and Missouri, Republicans took over the State House giving them full control of the State Legislature. In Georgia, Democrats maintained control of the State Senate on Election Night, only to wake up to three party switchers that passed control to the GOP. Republican wins in Georgia not only gave the party an early edge in regaining the US Senate with Congressman Saxby Chambliss defeating incumbent Democrat Senator Max Cleland, but their gubernatorial candidate Sonny Perdue defeated incumbent and presidential hopeful Roy Barnes, despite being outspent 7-1. Political observers credit the current Georgia State Republican Party Chairman Ralph Reed with these victories, a name familiar from the 1994 race.
Following Georgia, Republicans won big in Missouri, insuring control of the US Senate with the election of former Congressman Jim Talent over incumbent Senator Jean Carnahan.
Republicans held Texas and Florida; both political jewels coveted by national Democrats. State Attorney General John Cornyn defeated former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk to replace retiring Senator Phil Gramm in Texas. Governor Rick Perry, who assumed that position when George W. Bush resigned to become President, won reelection. And Jeb Bush in Florida won another term as Governor, despite being targeted by Democrats as a proxy fight against his brother President Bush.
The Democrats did pick up a few very important Southern seats. Former Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen defeated Congressman Van Hilleary to give the Tennessee Governor’s Mansion back to the Democrats. In Arkansas, Attorney General Mark Pryor unseated incumbent Tim Hutchinson to gain a US Senate Seat for the Democrats. Hutchinson suffered from a past campaign of family values contrasted with a recent divorce from his wife, and a follow up marriage to a former staff member. And State Senator Brady Henry won an upset victory in Oklahoma to replace term limited Republican Governor Frank Keating. Henry defeated former congressman and professional football player Steve Largent.
Arkansas was the only defeat in the US Senate for Southern Republicans. Of course, Thad Cochran won reelection in an effectively uncontested race in Mississippi, as did John Warner in Virginia. Former Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole defeated Bill Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles to replace retiring Jesse Helms in North Carolina. And former Education Secretary and Governor Lamar Alexander defeated Congressman Bob Clement in Tennessee following the retirement of Fred Thompson. Congressman Lindsey Graham defeated Alex Sanders to succeed Strom Thurmond in South Carolina.
Incumbent Senate Republican victories included Mitch McConnell in Kentucky defeating Lois Combs Weinberg, daughter of an ex-governor; Jeff Sessions in Alabama defeating State Auditor Susan Parker; and Jim Inhofe defeating former Governor David Walters in Oklahoma.
Still pending is the Louisiana Senate Run-off scheduled for Saturday December 7. Incumbent Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu barely won her first campaign six years ago, and her victory was plagued with accusations of voter fraud. This year, she was unable to win the 50% needed in November to win outright and now faces the Republican consensus candidate Suzanne Haik Terrell, who leads in the polls.
We will see if Louisiana follows a Southern Republican Trend. Of greater question to Mississippians, is how this GOP resurgence in the South will affect our state in 2003. Expected Republican front-runner Haley Barbour will be challenging a less than popular Governor Ronnie Musgrove. But Mississippi Republicans would like to take cues from Georgia, Texas and Missouri and deliver a Republican State Senate in addition to the Governor’s Mansion. That should give Mississippi Democrats something to think about.
Brian Perry is a columnist for the Madison County Journal and editor of MagnoliaReport.com.
